Tapatio vs Universidad Guadalajara

07 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

Tapatio

Universidad Guadalajara

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.8% DRAW 29.0% AWAY 33.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.7% 2.55 DRAW 29.0% 3.40 AWAY 32.3% 3.05

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Universidad Guadalajara has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tapatio Universidad Guadalajara

Shots 10.8 · On target 5.3 Shots 13.3 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tapatio Universidad Guadalajara

Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 5.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tapatio Universidad Guadalajara

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Tapatio ↑ +0.07 (+3.1%)

Universidad Guadalajara ↑ +0.01 (+0.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.