Piratas vs Correcaminos

06 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.6 pp

Piratas

Correcaminos

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 64.5% DRAW 21.2% AWAY 14.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 59.0% 1.62 DRAW 23.3% 4.10 AWAY 17.8% 5.36

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Piratas clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 64.5% win probability, compared with 59.0% implied by the market. The 5.6 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Piratas has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Piratas Correcaminos

Shots 16.5 · On target 4.8 Shots 9.5 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Piratas, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Piratas Correcaminos

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 16.5 · On target allowed 6.0

Piratas has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Piratas Correcaminos

The combined recent performance profile favours Piratas.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Piratas ↑ +0.06 (+4.0%)

Correcaminos ↓ -0.39 (-6.8%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.