NK IB 1975 Ljubljana vs NK Litija

19 Sep 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE AWAY +8.3 pp

NK IB 1975 Ljubljana

NK Litija

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 26.5% DRAW 24.4% AWAY 49.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.4% 2.75 DRAW 25.8% 3.56 AWAY 40.8% 2.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates NK Litija substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 49.1% win probability, compared with 40.8% implied by the market. The 8.3 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

NK Litija has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

NK IB 1975 Ljubljana NK Litija

Shots 11.3 · On target 6.3 Shots 17.0 · On target 7.8

Recent attacking output favours NK Litija, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

NK IB 1975 Ljubljana NK Litija

Shots allowed 19.8 · On target allowed 10.3 Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 3.8

NK Litija has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

NK IB 1975 Ljubljana NK Litija

The combined recent performance profile favours NK Litija.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

NK IB 1975 Ljubljana ↑ +0.60 (+27.9%)

NK Litija ↓ -0.50 (-18.2%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.