Pattani FC vs BG Pathum United

04 Sep 2026 · 14:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.9 pp

Pattani FC

BG Pathum United

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 27.2% DRAW 27.0% AWAY 45.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 23.3% 4.04 DRAW 26.4% 3.57 AWAY 50.2% 1.88

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Pattani FC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 27.2% win probability, compared with 23.3% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Pattani FC has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Pattani FC BG Pathum United

Shots 11.3 · On target 4.0 Shots 8.3 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Pattani FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Pattani FC BG Pathum United

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 6.5

Pattani FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Pattani FC BG Pathum United

The combined recent performance profile favours Pattani FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Pattani FC ↓ -0.38 (-8.5%)

BG Pathum United ↑ +0.15 (+8.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.