Chiangrai Utd vs Chonburi

05 Sep 2026 · 13:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.3 pp

Chiangrai Utd

Chonburi

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.5% DRAW 28.4% AWAY 34.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.9% 2.29 DRAW 28.2% 3.40 AWAY 29.8% 3.22

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Chonburi clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 34.1% win probability, compared with 29.8% implied by the market. The 4.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Chonburi

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Chiangrai Utd Chonburi

Shots 7.3 · On target 3.5 Shots 19.5 · On target 8.3

Recent attacking output favours Chonburi, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Chiangrai Utd Chonburi

Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 5.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Chiangrai Utd Chonburi

The combined recent performance profile favours Chonburi.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Chiangrai Utd ↓ -0.18 (-7.3%)

Chonburi ↑ +0.37 (+13.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.