Asteras Tripolis vs Iraklis 1908 FC

07 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.7 pp

Asteras Tripolis

Iraklis 1908 FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.4% DRAW 27.0% AWAY 18.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.7% 1.98 DRAW 28.1% 3.50 AWAY 22.2% 4.44

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Asteras Tripolis clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 54.4% win probability, compared with 49.7% implied by the market. The 4.7 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Asteras Tripolis has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Asteras Tripolis Iraklis 1908 FC

Shots 10.3 · On target 4.8 Shots 9.3 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Asteras Tripolis, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Asteras Tripolis Iraklis 1908 FC

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 19.5 · On target allowed 6.3

Asteras Tripolis has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Asteras Tripolis Iraklis 1908 FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Asteras Tripolis.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Asteras Tripolis ↓ -0.18 (-8.3%)

Iraklis 1908 FC ↑ +0.84 (+23.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.