CF Os Belenenses vs Atletico CP Lisbon

13 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.0 pp

CF Os Belenenses

Atletico CP Lisbon

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 51.5% DRAW 27.8% AWAY 20.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 48.6% 1.93 DRAW 28.4% 3.31 AWAY 23.1% 4.07

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for CF Os Belenenses relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 51.5% win probability, compared with 48.6% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: CF Os Belenenses

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

CF Os Belenenses Atletico CP Lisbon

Shots 14.8 · On target 8.0 Shots 10.3 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours CF Os Belenenses, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CF Os Belenenses Atletico CP Lisbon

Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 2.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CF Os Belenenses Atletico CP Lisbon

The combined recent performance profile favours CF Os Belenenses.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

CF Os Belenenses ↑ +0.03 (+1.3%)

Atletico CP Lisbon ↑ +0.08 (+2.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.