UD Oliveirense vs CD Mafra

12 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.2 pp

UD Oliveirense

CD Mafra

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.1% DRAW 29.1% AWAY 42.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.2% 3.15 DRAW 29.3% 3.25 AWAY 40.5% 2.35

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: CD Mafra

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

UD Oliveirense CD Mafra

Shots 11.0 · On target 5.5 Shots 12.0 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

UD Oliveirense CD Mafra

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 2.3

CD Mafra has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

UD Oliveirense CD Mafra

The combined recent performance profile favours CD Mafra.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

UD Oliveirense ↑ +0.73 (+30.2%)

CD Mafra ↓ -0.59 (-20.0%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.