Atletico CP Lisbon vs UD Oliveirense

06 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

Atletico CP Lisbon

UD Oliveirense

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 46.6% DRAW 27.9% AWAY 25.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.1% 1.95 DRAW 27.9% 3.30 AWAY 25.0% 3.68

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: UD Oliveirense

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Atletico CP Lisbon UD Oliveirense

Shots 7.3 · On target 3.3 Shots 11.3 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours UD Oliveirense, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Atletico CP Lisbon UD Oliveirense

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 5.0

Atletico CP Lisbon has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Atletico CP Lisbon UD Oliveirense

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Atletico CP Lisbon ↓ -0.43 (-17.9%)

UD Oliveirense ↑ +1.05 (+40.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.