Paredes vs AD Fafe

13 Sep 2026 · 21:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.4 pp

Paredes

AD Fafe

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 49.1% DRAW 28.9% AWAY 22.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.7% 2.12 DRAW 29.4% 3.30 AWAY 25.0% 3.88

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Paredes relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 49.1% win probability, compared with 45.7% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Paredes has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Paredes AD Fafe

Shots 17.0 · On target 7.0 Shots 13.3 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours Paredes, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Paredes AD Fafe

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 3.8

Paredes has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Paredes AD Fafe

The combined recent performance profile favours Paredes.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Paredes ↓ -0.16 (-7.0%)

AD Fafe ↑ +0.94 (+32.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.