Lusitano GC Evora vs Sporting Covilha

12 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

Lusitano GC Evora

Sporting Covilha

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.4% DRAW 28.3% AWAY 19.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 53.4% 1.76 DRAW 27.9% 3.37 AWAY 18.7% 5.02

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Sporting Covilha

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Lusitano GC Evora Sporting Covilha

Shots 10.0 · On target 3.0 Shots 11.3 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output favours Lusitano GC Evora, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Lusitano GC Evora Sporting Covilha

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.3

Sporting Covilha has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Lusitano GC Evora Sporting Covilha

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Lusitano GC Evora ↓ -0.31 (-14.8%)

Sporting Covilha ↑ +1.43 (+39.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.