Guimaraes B vs Trofense

05 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.6 pp

Guimaraes B

Trofense

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 60.5% DRAW 23.6% AWAY 16.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.9% 1.66 DRAW 25.1% 3.70 AWAY 19.0% 4.89

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Guimaraes B clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 60.5% win probability, compared with 55.9% implied by the market. The 4.6 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Guimaraes B has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Guimaraes B Trofense

Shots 15.3 · On target 6.3 Shots 6.0 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output favours Guimaraes B, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Guimaraes B Trofense

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 5.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Guimaraes B Trofense

The combined recent performance profile favours Guimaraes B.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Guimaraes B ↓ -0.35 (-17.4%)

Trofense ↑ +1.33 (+37.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.