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Croatia 2.NL · HR

NK Uljanik vs NK Uskok

23 Oct 2026 · 15:00
FOOTBALL MATCH INTELLIGENCE · MATCH OVERVIEW

Match Overview

Model vs Market

The model identifies a clear model-market difference for an away win for NK Uskok. The model is meaningfully more favourable to this outcome than the market.

Recent Performance

The home side have experienced mixed results recently. Defensive difficulties have been apparent. Their opponents have held a modest advantage in shooting volume.

The visitors have enjoyed a strong sequence of recent results. Across the matches with available shooting data, they have generated considerably more attempts than they have conceded.

Pre-Match Betting Perspective

Despite the positive model-market difference, the available Bet365 pre-match reference odds of 1.75 do not exceed the model's estimated fair odds of approximately 1.75. At this price, an away win for NK Uskok does not appear sufficiently attractive. A more favourable price before kick-off would be needed.

Statistical Context & Data Notes

Historical samples may involve different opponents, competitions and dates; shared fixtures are not independent. Missing shooting data are excluded. No xG, shot-quality or opponent-strength adjustment. Editorial selection thresholds are not significance tests; no prediction is implied.

Historical performance provides context rather than a prediction of the final result.

FOOTBALL MATCH INTELLIGENCE

Model vs Market

MARKET · BET365
HOME
NK Uljanik
STOCHASTICBET 20.1%
BET365 25.4% odd 3.50
DIFFERENCE -5.3 pp
DRAW
Draw
STOCHASTICBET 22.8%
BET365 23.7% odd 3.75
DIFFERENCE -0.9 pp
AWAY MODEL > MARKET
NK Uskok
STOCHASTICBET 57.1%
BET365 50.8% odd 1.75
DIFFERENCE +6.3 pp
STOCHASTICBET
BET365 MARKET
Market · BET365 Snapshot · 23 Oct 2026 · 14:51
PERFORMANCE · LAST 4 MATCHES

NK Uskok has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output
NK Uljanik NK Uskok
Shots 7.5 · On target 2.8 Shots 14.8 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours NK Uskok, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance
NK Uljanik NK Uskok
Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.5

NK Uskok has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence
NK Uljanik NK Uskok

The combined recent performance profile favours NK Uskok.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

Explore recent match statisticsCharts and detailed data
RECENT FORM · LAST 6 MATCHES

Recent matches compared

These charts compare recent performance with the league average. The central line represents the benchmark: values to the right are higher and values to the left are lower. Higher values are not always better, particularly for defensive metrics.
Benchmark: Croatia 2.NL · 111 matches with scores · 90 with shots · coverage 81.1%.
Historical window: 180 days before kickoff. Shooting benchmarks require at least 30 complete matches.

How have the teams performed recently?

Most recent first · W win · D draw · L loss

NK Uljanik6 matches · 3 home / 3 away
LWLDLD
Shot data available for 6/6 matches
NK Uskok6 matches · 3 home / 3 away
WWWLWL
Shot data available for 5/6 matches

Shots taken

Shots per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
NK UljanikHome team
−2.47.5 actual
NK UskokAway team
+4.814.6 actual
NK Uljanik: 7.5 · league average 9.9 · 6 valid matchesNK Uskok: 14.6 · league average 9.8 · 5 valid matches

Shots conceded

Opposition shots per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
NK UljanikHome team
−1.18.8 actual
NK UskokAway team
−3.07.0 actual
NK Uljanik: 8.8 · league average 9.9 · 6 valid matchesNK Uskok: 7.0 · league average 10.0 · 5 valid matches

Shots on target

Shots on target per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
NK UljanikHome team
−1.72.7 actual
NK UskokAway team
+0.95.2 actual
NK Uljanik: 2.7 · league average 4.4 · 6 valid matchesNK Uskok: 5.2 · league average 4.4 · 5 valid matches

Shots on target conceded

Opposition shots on target per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
NK UljanikHome team
−0.24.2 actual
NK UskokAway team
−1.62.8 actual
NK Uljanik: 4.2 · league average 4.4 · 6 valid matchesNK Uskok: 2.8 · league average 4.4 · 5 valid matches

Goals scored

Goals per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
NK UljanikHome team
−0.291.33 actual
NK UskokAway team
+0.552.17 actual
NK Uljanik: 1.33 · league average 1.62 · 6 valid matchesNK Uskok: 2.17 · league average 1.62 · 6 valid matches

Shot conversion

Goals per shot · difference from league average in percentage points

0 = league average
NK UljanikHome team
+1.0 pp17.8% actual
NK UskokAway team
−0.5 pp16.4% actual
NK Uljanik: 17.8% · league average 16.8% · 6 valid matchesNK Uskok: 16.4% · league average 16.9% · 5 valid matches

Goals conceded per shots faced

Goals conceded per opposition shot · difference from league average in percentage points

0 = league average
NK UljanikHome team
+11.5 pp28.3% actual
NK UskokAway team
−2.4 pp14.3% actual
NK Uljanik: 28.3% · league average 16.8% · 6 valid matchesNK Uskok: 14.3% · league average 16.7% · 5 valid matches

Individual match details

NK Uljanik · individual matches
DateVenueResultShots for/againstOn target for/against
16/10/2026Away0–24 / 81 / 5
09/10/2026Home3–17 / 154 / 7
03/10/2026Away0–27 / 81 / 5
25/09/2026Home3–312 / 125 / 5
19/09/2026Away0–50 / 00 / 0
11/09/2026Home2–215 / 105 / 3
NK Uskok · individual matches
DateVenueResultShots for/againstOn target for/against
17/10/2026Home1–09 / 72 / 3
09/10/2026Away4–019 / 97 / 2
24/09/2026Away2–021 / 78 / 1
19/09/2026Home2–310 / 54 / 4
12/09/2026Away3–214 / 75 / 4
09/09/2026Home1–3——

The recent matches are the latest available before kickoff within the historical window and may include other competitions. The benchmark refers to the event league and is weighted by the home/away composition of the recent sample. Goals and shots may have different data coverage; conversion rates use only matches with paired observations. Benchmarks are reconstructed from match dates rather than certified data-capture timestamps. Opponent strength and chance quality (xG) are not adjusted for. Some statistics may be incomplete or anomalous. These indicators are descriptive, not predictive.