TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) vs Bayer Leverkusen (W)

04 Sep 2026 · 18:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.9 pp

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)

Bayer Leverkusen (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 27.6% DRAW 23.6% AWAY 48.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 25.6% 3.65 DRAW 24.0% 3.90 AWAY 50.4% 1.85

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Bayer Leverkusen (W)

Shots 16.3 · On target 8.5 Shots 15.3 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Bayer Leverkusen (W)

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Bayer Leverkusen (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) ↑ +1.01 (+38.1%)

Bayer Leverkusen (W) ↓ -0.42 (-18.3%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.