Progres Niedercorn vs Union Luxembourg

16 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Progres Niedercorn

Union Luxembourg

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.2% DRAW 26.5% AWAY 30.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.6% 2.33 DRAW 27.0% 3.50 AWAY 32.4% 2.92

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Progres Niedercorn relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 43.2% win probability, compared with 40.6% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Progres Niedercorn

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Progres Niedercorn Union Luxembourg

Shots 14.5 · On target 6.3 Shots 14.3 · On target 7.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Progres Niedercorn Union Luxembourg

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 6.0

Progres Niedercorn has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Progres Niedercorn Union Luxembourg

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Progres Niedercorn = (0.0%)

Union Luxembourg ↑ +0.27 (+10.2%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.