Residence Walferdange vs US Mondorf-Les-Bains

16 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.7 pp

Residence Walferdange

US Mondorf-Les-Bains

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 27.0% DRAW 24.9% AWAY 48.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 23.2% 4.00 DRAW 24.6% 3.78 AWAY 52.2% 1.78

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Residence Walferdange relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 27.0% win probability, compared with 23.2% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Residence Walferdange

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Residence Walferdange US Mondorf-Les-Bains

Shots 12.3 · On target 7.0 Shots 8.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Residence Walferdange, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Residence Walferdange US Mondorf-Les-Bains

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 6.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Residence Walferdange US Mondorf-Les-Bains

The combined recent performance profile favours Residence Walferdange.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Residence Walferdange ↓ -1.04 (-20.6%)

US Mondorf-Les-Bains ↑ +0.23 (+14.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.