Bayer Leverkusen (W) vs Bayern Munich (W)

14 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Bayer Leverkusen (W)

Bayern Munich (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 10.8% DRAW 15.4% AWAY 73.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 10.3% 10.00 DRAW 15.9% 6.50 AWAY 73.8% 1.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Bayern Munich (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bayer Leverkusen (W) Bayern Munich (W)

Shots 14.8 · On target 5.8 Shots 16.0 · On target 8.0

Recent attacking output favours Bayern Munich (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bayer Leverkusen (W) Bayern Munich (W)

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 3.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bayer Leverkusen (W) Bayern Munich (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Bayer Leverkusen (W) ↑ +4.14 (+70.6%)

Bayern Munich (W) ↓ -0.01 (-0.7%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.