RB Leipzig (W) vs Nurnberg (W)

12 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

RB Leipzig (W)

Nurnberg (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 56.4% DRAW 22.7% AWAY 21.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 53.7% 1.73 DRAW 23.8% 3.90 AWAY 22.5% 4.12

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for RB Leipzig (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 56.4% win probability, compared with 53.7% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: RB Leipzig (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

RB Leipzig (W) Nurnberg (W)

Shots 13.5 · On target 4.8 Shots 12.5 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

RB Leipzig (W) Nurnberg (W)

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 5.5

RB Leipzig (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

RB Leipzig (W) Nurnberg (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

RB Leipzig (W) ↑ +0.08 (+4.7%)

Nurnberg (W) ↓ -0.10 (-2.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.