Freiburg (W) vs Mainz (W)

13 Sep 2026 · 18:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

Freiburg (W)

Mainz (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 76.5% DRAW 15.0% AWAY 8.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 74.7% 1.30 DRAW 16.2% 6.01 AWAY 9.1% 10.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Freiburg (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Freiburg (W) Mainz (W)

Shots 10.0 · On target 5.3 Shots 6.3 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Freiburg (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Freiburg (W) Mainz (W)

Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 6.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Freiburg (W) Mainz (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Freiburg (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Freiburg (W) ↓ -0.08 (-5.8%)

Mainz (W) ↑ +2.15 (+25.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.