Estrela Amadora U23 vs UD Leiria U23

08 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Estrela Amadora U23

UD Leiria U23

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.6% DRAW 27.9% AWAY 31.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.1% 2.50 DRAW 28.2% 3.38 AWAY 33.8% 2.82

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Estrela Amadora U23 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 40.6% win probability, compared with 38.1% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Estrela Amadora U23

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Estrela Amadora U23 UD Leiria U23

Shots 9.3 · On target 2.5 Shots 7.3 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Estrela Amadora U23 UD Leiria U23

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 4.8

Estrela Amadora U23 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Estrela Amadora U23 UD Leiria U23

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Estrela Amadora U23 ↓ -0.13 (-4.8%)

UD Leiria U23 ↑ +0.37 (+15.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.