Maritimo U23 vs Gil Vicente U23

08 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

Maritimo U23

Gil Vicente U23

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.0% DRAW 26.5% AWAY 39.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.9% 3.14 DRAW 26.6% 3.64 AWAY 42.5% 2.28

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Maritimo U23 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 34.0% win probability, compared with 30.9% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Maritimo U23

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Maritimo U23 Gil Vicente U23

Shots 6.5 · On target 3.3 Shots 6.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Maritimo U23 Gil Vicente U23

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 7.0

Maritimo U23 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Maritimo U23 Gil Vicente U23

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Maritimo U23 ↑ +0.74 (+30.8%)

Gil Vicente U23 ↓ -0.12 (-5.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.