Stourbridge vs Real Bedford

22 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.5 pp

Stourbridge

Real Bedford

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 19.8% DRAW 22.4% AWAY 57.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 21.3% 4.50 DRAW 23.4% 4.10 AWAY 55.4% 1.73

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Real Bedford

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Stourbridge Real Bedford

Shots 7.0 · On target 2.5 Shots 16.3 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Real Bedford, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Stourbridge Real Bedford

Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Stourbridge Real Bedford

The combined recent performance profile favours Real Bedford.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Stourbridge ↑ +0.67 (+17.5%)

Real Bedford ↓ -0.04 (-2.3%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.