Penafiel U23 vs Santa Clara U23

15 Sep 2026 · 14:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.4 pp

Penafiel U23

Santa Clara U23

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.5% DRAW 26.3% AWAY 34.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.1% 2.59 DRAW 26.7% 3.50 AWAY 37.2% 2.51

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Penafiel U23 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 39.5% win probability, compared with 36.1% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Penafiel U23 has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Penafiel U23 Santa Clara U23

Shots 12.8 · On target 5.8 Shots 10.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Penafiel U23, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Penafiel U23 Santa Clara U23

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 4.8

Penafiel U23 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Penafiel U23 Santa Clara U23

The combined recent performance profile favours Penafiel U23.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Penafiel U23 ↑ +0.09 (+3.6%)

Santa Clara U23 ↑ +0.01 (+0.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.