Aveley vs Wingate & Finchley

14 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.9 pp

Aveley

Wingate & Finchley

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 65.1% DRAW 19.7% AWAY 15.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 61.2% 1.58 DRAW 21.4% 4.52 AWAY 17.4% 5.54

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Aveley relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 65.1% win probability, compared with 61.2% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Aveley has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Aveley Wingate & Finchley

Shots 5.3 · On target 3.3 Shots 4.0 · On target 1.5

Recent attacking output favours Aveley, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Aveley Wingate & Finchley

Shots allowed 1.8 · On target allowed 1.3 Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 4.8

Aveley has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Aveley Wingate & Finchley

The combined recent performance profile favours Aveley.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Aveley ↓ -0.02 (-1.3%)

Wingate & Finchley ↑ +1.04 (+23.1%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.