Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion

07 Sep 2026 · 23:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

Cerro Porteno

Nacional Asuncion

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.6% DRAW 33.3% AWAY 27.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.3% 2.32 DRAW 32.4% 2.95 AWAY 26.3% 3.64

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Nacional Asuncion

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cerro Porteno Nacional Asuncion

Shots 10.5 · On target 2.8 Shots 11.5 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Nacional Asuncion, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cerro Porteno Nacional Asuncion

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cerro Porteno Nacional Asuncion

The combined recent performance profile favours Nacional Asuncion.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Cerro Porteno ↓ -0.22 (-8.7%)

Nacional Asuncion ↑ +0.57 (+18.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.