Guarani Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta

07 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Guarani Asuncion

Deportivo Recoleta

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.1% DRAW 25.1% AWAY 22.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.7% 1.88 DRAW 25.7% 3.70 AWAY 23.6% 4.04

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Guarani Asuncion

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Guarani Asuncion Deportivo Recoleta

Shots 11.0 · On target 3.3 Shots 6.8 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output favours Guarani Asuncion, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Guarani Asuncion Deportivo Recoleta

Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Guarani Asuncion Deportivo Recoleta

The combined recent performance profile favours Guarani Asuncion.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Guarani Asuncion ↓ -0.06 (-2.8%)

Deportivo Recoleta ↑ +0.33 (+8.9%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.