Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion

02 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

ALIGNED HOME +1.6 pp

Nacional Asuncion

Libertad Asuncion

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.3% DRAW 29.5% AWAY 37.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 31.7% 2.80 DRAW 29.6% 3.00 AWAY 38.6% 2.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Nacional Asuncion significantly higher than the market does.

Our model estimates a 33.3% win probability, compared with 31.7% implied by the market. This 1.6 percentage-point gap, supported by 325 historically comparable matches, highlights a significant divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Libertad Asuncion has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nacional Asuncion Libertad Asuncion

Shots 9.8 · On target 5.0 Shots 16.5 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Libertad Asuncion, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nacional Asuncion Libertad Asuncion

Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 2.8

Libertad Asuncion has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nacional Asuncion Libertad Asuncion

The combined recent performance profile favours Libertad Asuncion.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Nacional Asuncion ↑ +0.55 (+21.6%)

Libertad Asuncion ↓ -0.30 (-10.5%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.