Deportivo Recoleta vs Cerro Porteno

03 Sep 2026 · 23:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Deportivo Recoleta

Cerro Porteno

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 22.5% DRAW 28.0% AWAY 49.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 22.3% 4.26 DRAW 27.8% 3.42 AWAY 50.0% 1.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

The overall recent shot balance favours the away side, although neither attack nor defence dominates every measure.

Attack Recent attacking output

Deportivo Recoleta Cerro Porteno

Shots 6.8 · On target 2.3 Shots 10.0 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Deportivo Recoleta Cerro Porteno

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Deportivo Recoleta Cerro Porteno

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Deportivo Recoleta ↓ -0.07 (-1.6%)

Cerro Porteno ↑ +0.14 (+7.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.