FK Kauno Zalgiris vs Suduva Marijampole

09 Sep 2026 · 17:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

FK Kauno Zalgiris

Suduva Marijampole

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 48.5% DRAW 26.8% AWAY 24.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.2% 1.85 DRAW 26.7% 3.48 AWAY 23.1% 4.02

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Suduva Marijampole has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

FK Kauno Zalgiris Suduva Marijampole

Shots 10.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 11.8 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Suduva Marijampole, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FK Kauno Zalgiris Suduva Marijampole

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 2.0

Suduva Marijampole has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FK Kauno Zalgiris Suduva Marijampole

The combined recent performance profile favours Suduva Marijampole.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

FK Kauno Zalgiris ↑ +0.12 (+6.9%)

Suduva Marijampole ↓ -0.32 (-7.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.