US Lusitanos Saint-Maur vs Chambly Thelle FC

12 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.7 pp

US Lusitanos Saint-Maur

Chambly Thelle FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.5% DRAW 31.0% AWAY 31.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.7% 2.40 DRAW 30.5% 3.20 AWAY 28.7% 3.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Chambly Thelle FC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 31.5% win probability, compared with 28.7% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Chambly Thelle FC has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

US Lusitanos Saint-Maur Chambly Thelle FC

Shots 8.8 · On target 3.5 Shots 9.8 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Chambly Thelle FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

US Lusitanos Saint-Maur Chambly Thelle FC

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.0

Chambly Thelle FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

US Lusitanos Saint-Maur Chambly Thelle FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Chambly Thelle FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

US Lusitanos Saint-Maur ↑ +0.40 (+20.0%)

Chambly Thelle FC ↑ +0.15 (+4.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.