Sporting Club Toulon vs Frejus

12 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

Sporting Club Toulon

Frejus

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.6% DRAW 30.2% AWAY 29.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.7% 2.25 DRAW 29.9% 3.14 AWAY 28.4% 3.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Sporting Club Toulon

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sporting Club Toulon Frejus

Shots 8.3 · On target 3.3 Shots 5.3 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Sporting Club Toulon, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sporting Club Toulon Frejus

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 4.3 · On target allowed 2.0

Frejus has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sporting Club Toulon Frejus

The combined recent performance profile favours Frejus.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Sporting Club Toulon = (0.0%)

Frejus ↑ +0.30 (+10.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.