Arezzo vs Sudtirol

20 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Arezzo

Sudtirol

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.0% DRAW 30.8% AWAY 25.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.4% 2.38 DRAW 30.8% 3.20 AWAY 27.8% 3.55

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Arezzo relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 44.0% win probability, compared with 41.4% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Arezzo

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Arezzo Sudtirol

Shots 12.0 · On target 2.8 Shots 8.8 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Arezzo Sudtirol

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 19.0 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Arezzo Sudtirol

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Arezzo ↑ +0.12 (+5.3%)

Sudtirol ↑ +0.09 (+2.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.