Cremonese vs Padova

06 Sep 2026 · 19:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Cremonese

Padova

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.5% DRAW 28.7% AWAY 20.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 48.0% 2.06 DRAW 29.1% 3.40 AWAY 23.0% 4.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Cremonese relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 50.5% win probability, compared with 48.0% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Cremonese

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cremonese Padova

Shots 10.5 · On target 3.5 Shots 6.5 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output favours Cremonese, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cremonese Padova

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cremonese Padova

The combined recent performance profile favours Cremonese.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Cremonese ↑ +0.24 (+13.2%)

Padova ↓ -0.20 (-4.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.