Italy Serie B · IT

Carrarese vs Sampdoria

08 Nov 2026 · 17:15

FOOTBALL MATCH INTELLIGENCE · MATCH OVERVIEW

Match Overview

Model vs Market

The model identifies a negligible model-market difference for a home win for Carrarese. The difference is too small to suggest meaningful disagreement.

Recent Performance

Recent match analysis is not yet available for this fixture. Additional context will appear as the underlying match data becomes available.

Pre-Match Betting Perspective

Despite the positive model-market difference, the available Pinnacle pre-match reference odds of 2.49 do not exceed the model's estimated fair odds of approximately 2.52. At this price, a home win for Carrarese does not appear sufficiently attractive. A more favourable price before kick-off would be needed.

Historical performance provides context rather than a prediction of the final result.

FOOTBALL MATCH INTELLIGENCE

Model vs Market

MARKET · PINNACLE

HOME MODEL > MARKET

Carrarese

STOCHASTICBET 39.6%

PINNACLE 39.0% odd 2.49

DIFFERENCE +0.7 pp

DRAW

Draw

STOCHASTICBET 31.7%

PINNACLE 31.8% odd 3.05

DIFFERENCE -0.1 pp

AWAY

Sampdoria

STOCHASTICBET 28.7%

PINNACLE 29.2% odd 3.32

DIFFERENCE -0.6 pp

STOCHASTICBET

PINNACLE MARKET

Market · PINNACLE Snapshot · 08 Nov 2026 · 16:31

PERFORMANCE · LAST 4 MATCHES

Attacking Edge: Carrarese

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Carrarese Sampdoria

Shots 14.8 · On target 4.8 Shots 12.8 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Carrarese Sampdoria

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Carrarese Sampdoria

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

Market Momentum

Normalized implied probability movement · percentage points · as of 2026-11-08 16:33:01

6h window

Outcome	Pinnacle	Bet365
HOME	-1.65 pp	-0.92 pp
DRAW	+1.76 pp	-0.01 pp
AWAY	-0.10 pp	+0.93 pp

No qualified strong agreement in this window.

24h window

Outcome	Pinnacle	Bet365
HOME	+0.71 pp	+2.44 pp
DRAW	+1.74 pp	-0.04 pp
AWAY	-2.44 pp	-2.40 pp

Market Agreement: AWAY DOWN

Based on available observation endpoints; continuous coverage is not verified. Unavailable values are not zero movements. Market movement is descriptive, not a prediction.