Mantova vs Pisa

20 Sep 2026 · 17:15

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.1 pp

Mantova

Pisa

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.1% DRAW 29.5% AWAY 33.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.0% 2.77 DRAW 29.4% 3.29 AWAY 35.6% 2.72

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Mantova

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Mantova Pisa

Shots 12.3 · On target 6.3 Shots 12.3 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Mantova Pisa

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 5.5

Mantova has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Mantova Pisa

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Mantova ↑ +0.02 (+0.7%)

Pisa ↑ +0.12 (+4.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.