Fuerte San Francisco vs Municipal Limeno

13 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.1 pp

Fuerte San Francisco

Municipal Limeno

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 19.6% DRAW 26.5% AWAY 53.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 22.0% 4.20 DRAW 27.2% 3.40 AWAY 50.8% 1.82

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Municipal Limeno relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 53.9% win probability, compared with 50.8% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Municipal Limeno has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Fuerte San Francisco Municipal Limeno

Shots 10.3 · On target 3.5 Shots 13.5 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Municipal Limeno, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Fuerte San Francisco Municipal Limeno

Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 2.5

Municipal Limeno has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Fuerte San Francisco Municipal Limeno

The combined recent performance profile favours Municipal Limeno.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Fuerte San Francisco ↑ +0.68 (+19.3%)

Municipal Limeno ↓ -0.33 (-15.3%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.