AD Isidro Metapan vs CD INCA Aruba

06 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

AD Isidro Metapan

CD INCA Aruba

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 70.6% DRAW 20.9% AWAY 8.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 69.0% 1.38 DRAW 21.6% 4.40 AWAY 9.3% 10.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

AD Isidro Metapan has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

AD Isidro Metapan CD INCA Aruba

Shots 11.5 · On target 3.5 Shots 8.0 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours AD Isidro Metapan, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

AD Isidro Metapan CD INCA Aruba

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 6.5

AD Isidro Metapan has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

AD Isidro Metapan CD INCA Aruba

The combined recent performance profile favours AD Isidro Metapan.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

AD Isidro Metapan ↑ +0.10 (+7.4%)

CD INCA Aruba ↑ +2.20 (+27.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.