Pacatuba vs Calouros do Ar

05 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Pacatuba

Calouros do Ar

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 47.4% DRAW 29.3% AWAY 23.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.7% 2.05 DRAW 29.6% 3.10 AWAY 25.7% 3.56

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Pacatuba relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 47.4% win probability, compared with 44.7% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Pacatuba has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Pacatuba Calouros do Ar

Shots 14.0 · On target 5.8 Shots 11.5 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Pacatuba Calouros do Ar

Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 5.8

Pacatuba has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Pacatuba Calouros do Ar

The combined recent performance profile favours Pacatuba.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Pacatuba ↑ +0.23 (+12.6%)

Calouros do Ar ↓ -0.49 (-12.0%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.