Nakhon Pathom FC vs Kanchanaburi Power

16 Sep 2026 · 13:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.5 pp

Nakhon Pathom FC

Kanchanaburi Power

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 26.5% DRAW 25.3% AWAY 48.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 28.3% 3.40 DRAW 26.0% 3.70 AWAY 45.8% 2.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Kanchanaburi Power relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 48.3% win probability, compared with 45.8% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Kanchanaburi Power has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nakhon Pathom FC Kanchanaburi Power

Shots 11.3 · On target 5.8 Shots 12.5 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nakhon Pathom FC Kanchanaburi Power

Shots allowed 19.8 · On target allowed 9.0 Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 5.8

Kanchanaburi Power has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nakhon Pathom FC Kanchanaburi Power

The combined recent performance profile favours Kanchanaburi Power.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Nakhon Pathom FC ↑ +0.40 (+13.3%)

Kanchanaburi Power ↓ -0.06 (-2.8%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.