Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr Riyadh

12 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.0 pp

Al Khaleej Saihat

Al-Nassr Riyadh

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 9.3% DRAW 14.4% AWAY 76.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 10.7% 9.00 DRAW 16.0% 5.99 AWAY 73.3% 1.31

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Al-Nassr Riyadh relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 76.3% win probability, compared with 73.3% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Al-Nassr Riyadh has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Al Khaleej Saihat Al-Nassr Riyadh

Shots 9.8 · On target 1.5 Shots 15.0 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output favours Al-Nassr Riyadh, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Al Khaleej Saihat Al-Nassr Riyadh

Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.0

Al-Nassr Riyadh has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Al Khaleej Saihat Al-Nassr Riyadh

The combined recent performance profile favours Al-Nassr Riyadh.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Al Khaleej Saihat ↑ +1.00 (+12.5%)

Al-Nassr Riyadh ↑ +0.03 (+1.9%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.