Santamarina Tandil vs CA Costa Brava

13 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.5 pp

Santamarina Tandil

CA Costa Brava

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.1% DRAW 34.3% AWAY 26.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.6% 2.53 DRAW 33.7% 2.75 AWAY 29.7% 3.12

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Santamarina Tandil relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 39.1% win probability, compared with 36.6% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Santamarina Tandil has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Santamarina Tandil CA Costa Brava

Shots 5.3 · On target 2.5 Shots 4.5 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output favours Santamarina Tandil, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Santamarina Tandil CA Costa Brava

Shots allowed 3.8 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.3

Santamarina Tandil has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Santamarina Tandil CA Costa Brava

The combined recent performance profile favours Santamarina Tandil.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Santamarina Tandil ↑ +0.13 (+5.4%)

CA Costa Brava ↑ +0.12 (+4.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.