Rakow Czestochowa II vs Sparta Katowice

13 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.0 pp

Rakow Czestochowa II

Sparta Katowice

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 22.9% DRAW 22.5% AWAY 54.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 24.8% 3.87 DRAW 23.6% 4.06 AWAY 51.6% 1.86

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Sparta Katowice relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 54.6% win probability, compared with 51.6% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Sparta Katowice has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Rakow Czestochowa II Sparta Katowice

Shots 15.5 · On target 5.3 Shots 17.5 · On target 8.0

Recent attacking output favours Sparta Katowice, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Rakow Czestochowa II Sparta Katowice

Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.8

Sparta Katowice has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Rakow Czestochowa II Sparta Katowice

The combined recent performance profile favours Sparta Katowice.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Rakow Czestochowa II ↑ +0.48 (+14.2%)

Sparta Katowice ↓ -0.11 (-5.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.