Saint Martin vs US Virgin Islands

26 Sep 2026 · 22:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Saint Martin

US Virgin Islands

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 88.7% DRAW 7.0% AWAY 4.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 86.1% 1.11 DRAW 8.7% 11.00 AWAY 5.2% 18.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Saint Martin relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 88.7% win probability, compared with 86.1% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Saint Martin has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Saint Martin US Virgin Islands

Shots 11.3 · On target 5.8 Shots 2.8 · On target 1.0

Recent attacking output favours Saint Martin, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Saint Martin US Virgin Islands

Shots allowed 2.5 · On target allowed 0.8 Shots allowed 4.3 · On target allowed 1.8

Saint Martin has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Saint Martin US Virgin Islands

The combined recent performance profile favours Saint Martin.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Saint Martin ↓ -0.02 (-1.9%)

US Virgin Islands ↑ +3.80 (+25.9%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.