Barbados vs Saint Lucia

26 Sep 2026 · 02:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

Barbados

Saint Lucia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.0% DRAW 27.2% AWAY 43.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 27.2% 3.50 DRAW 27.2% 3.50 AWAY 45.7% 2.08

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Barbados

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Barbados Saint Lucia

Shots 6.8 · On target 3.0 Shots 1.8 · On target 1.0

Recent attacking output favours Barbados, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Barbados Saint Lucia

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 3.5

Saint Lucia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Barbados Saint Lucia

The combined recent performance profile favours Barbados.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Barbados ↑ +1.00 (+40.0%)

Saint Lucia ↓ -0.62 (-23.0%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.