Jamaica vs Guatemala

26 Sep 2026 · 02:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +4.0 pp

Jamaica

Guatemala

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.2% DRAW 26.8% AWAY 19.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.2% 1.91 DRAW 27.7% 3.46 AWAY 22.1% 4.34

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Jamaica relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 54.2% win probability, compared with 50.2% implied by the market. The 4.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Jamaica has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Jamaica Guatemala

Shots 8.0 · On target 3.3 Shots 3.5 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output favours Jamaica, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Jamaica Guatemala

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 5.0

Jamaica has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Jamaica Guatemala

The combined recent performance profile favours Jamaica.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Jamaica ↑ +0.14 (+7.9%)

Guatemala ↓ -0.53 (-10.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.