Honduras vs Suriname

26 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Honduras

Suriname

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 58.9% DRAW 25.5% AWAY 15.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 57.7% 1.65 DRAW 25.9% 3.68 AWAY 16.5% 5.77

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Suriname

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Honduras Suriname

Shots 4.0 · On target 0.8 Shots 11.3 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours Suriname, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Honduras Suriname

Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 19.3 · On target allowed 6.8

Honduras has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Honduras Suriname

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Honduras ↓ -0.37 (-18.3%)

Suriname ↑ +1.89 (+48.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.