Paraty vs Friburguense

13 Sep 2026 · 19:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Paraty

Friburguense

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 14.5% DRAW 22.3% AWAY 63.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 15.3% 6.08 DRAW 22.9% 4.05 AWAY 61.8% 1.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Friburguense has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Paraty Friburguense

Shots 3.5 · On target 1.3 Shots 6.5 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Friburguense, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Paraty Friburguense

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 3.0 · On target allowed 0.5

Friburguense has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Paraty Friburguense

The combined recent performance profile favours Friburguense.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Paraty ↑ +0.77 (+14.5%)

Friburguense ↓ -0.03 (-2.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.