7 de Abril vs Paraty

21 Sep 2026 · 19:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.9 pp

7 de Abril

Paraty

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 58.6% DRAW 23.2% AWAY 18.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.7% 1.62 DRAW 24.1% 3.80 AWAY 19.2% 4.76

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: 7 de Abril

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

7 de Abril Paraty

Shots 5.5 · On target 2.8 Shots 7.8 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

7 de Abril Paraty

Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 4.5

7 de Abril has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

7 de Abril Paraty

The combined recent performance profile favours 7 de Abril.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

7 de Abril ↓ -0.04 (-2.1%)

Paraty ↑ +0.34 (+7.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.