FC Rio de Janeiro vs Santa Cruz RJ

21 Sep 2026 · 19:45

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.8 pp

FC Rio de Janeiro

Santa Cruz RJ

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 26.3% DRAW 24.8% AWAY 48.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 21.5% 4.30 DRAW 24.2% 3.82 AWAY 54.3% 1.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates FC Rio de Janeiro clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 26.3% win probability, compared with 21.5% implied by the market. The 4.8 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Santa Cruz RJ

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

FC Rio de Janeiro Santa Cruz RJ

Shots 4.3 · On target 2.0 Shots 11.5 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Santa Cruz RJ, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FC Rio de Janeiro Santa Cruz RJ

Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 1.5 Shots allowed 21.0 · On target allowed 8.5

FC Rio de Janeiro has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FC Rio de Janeiro Santa Cruz RJ

The combined recent performance profile favours FC Rio de Janeiro.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

FC Rio de Janeiro ↓ -1.21 (-21.9%)

Santa Cruz RJ ↑ +0.30 (+21.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.