MTK Hungaria (W) vs Ujpest (W)

16 Sep 2026 · 13:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

MTK Hungaria (W)

Ujpest (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.3% DRAW 24.1% AWAY 21.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.6% 1.75 DRAW 25.1% 3.60 AWAY 23.3% 3.88

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for MTK Hungaria (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 54.3% win probability, compared with 51.6% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

MTK Hungaria (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

MTK Hungaria (W) Ujpest (W)

Shots 15.8 · On target 5.3 Shots 12.3 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours MTK Hungaria (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

MTK Hungaria (W) Ujpest (W)

Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 1.5 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.3

MTK Hungaria (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

MTK Hungaria (W) Ujpest (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours MTK Hungaria (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

MTK Hungaria (W) ↓ -0.05 (-2.8%)

Ujpest (W) ↑ +0.05 (+1.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.